The International Monetary Fund (IMF) Executive Board has concluded its 2025 Article IV Consultation assessing that the UK economy is recovering, with modest growth expected this year and stronger momentum building into 2026. But global uncertainty, cautious consumers, and inflation pressures could still slow things down.
The IMF forecasts growth of 1.2% in 2025, rising to 1.4% in 2026. Business investment is picking up, and public spending from the last budget is helping support the recovery.
Inflation still a concern - but expected to ease
While inflation is expected to average 3.2% this year, the IMF estimates that it should fall back to 2.3 percent next year.
Government finances: on the right track, if plans hold
The IMF says the government’s current spending and borrowing plans are about right - encouraging growth while keeping debt in check. But it stressed the importance of sticking to the deficit reduction plan over the next five years.
Interest rates: gradual cuts make sense
With inflation still above target and the outlook uncertain, the IMF supports the Bank of England’s cautious approach to cutting interest rates.
Overall, the message is cautiously upbeat. Growth is returning, and the right policies are largely in place. But the IMF says it’s vital to prioritise long-term reforms - especially around skills, planning, and economic stability - and avoid frequent policy changes.
Unregulated Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) agreements will fall under full FCA regulation from 15 July 2026. For the first time, BNPL lenders will need to meet the same expectations as other consumer-credit providers. With almost 11 million UK adults using BNPL in 2024, according to an FCA survey, this is a significant change.
The government has published the draft secondary legislation for the UK’s Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which is due to go live on 1 January 2027. This is an important development for UK businesses importing affected materials.